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AsianFin -- India has overtaken China as the largest exporter of smartphones to the United States for the first time, as Apple Inc. ramps up its shift away from Chinese manufacturing amid deepening geopolitical and trade uncertainty.

Devices assembled in India accounted for 44% of U.S. smartphone imports in the second quarter, a dramatic increase from 13% a year earlier, according to new data published Monday by research firm Canalys. That surge translates into a 240% year-on-year jump in shipment volume, Canalys said.

By contrast, China’s share of smartphone exports to the U.S. plummeted to 25%, down from 61% during the same period in 2024, dropping the country to third place behind Vietnam.

The reversal marks a watershed moment in the global electronics supply chain and underscores how Apple’s recalibrated production strategy—driven by tariffs and political tensions—is redrawing the tech manufacturing map.

“This shift is largely driven by Apple’s accelerated pivot to India, prompted by an increasingly uncertain trade landscape between Washington and Beijing,” said Sanyam Chaurasia, principal analyst at Canalys.

Apple has steadily expanded its Indian assembly capacity in recent years, working with partners such as Foxconn and Pegatron. So far in 2025, most of its India-based output has been earmarked for the U.S. market, according to the report.

Trade Tensions Drive Reorientation

The change comes against the backdrop of escalating trade friction between the U.S. and China. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump imposed a sweeping 145% tariff on Chinese imports, prompting a tit-for-tat 125% levy from Beijing. A fragile truce reached in May initiated a 90-day rollback of these “reciprocal tariffs,” though negotiations remain ongoing.

U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are meeting this week in Stockholm in an effort to extend the temporary reprieve and seek a more durable resolution. But the volatility of recent years has already prompted many global manufacturers to diversify away from China.

“The uncertain outcome of negotiations with China has accelerated supply chain reorientation,” Canalys wrote in its report. “India and Vietnam have emerged as critical alternatives.”

Apple, for its part, has acknowledged the shifting dynamics. In May, CEO Tim Cook said he expected that “the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. will have India as their country of origin” by the end of 2025.

While Apple’s core devices—such as smartphones and tablets—are exempt from Trump’s baseline reciprocal tariffs, they still face minimum duties of 20%, according to the company.

Beyond Apple

Though Apple’s production strategy plays a major role in India’s rise, the broader push to decouple from China has prompted other smartphone makers and electronics brands to expand operations in South Asia as well. Xiaomi, Samsung, and Google have all invested in or explored Indian production hubs in recent years.

India’s ambitions are also being supported by government incentives, including the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, designed to attract global manufacturers and reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains.

For China, the steep decline in U.S. smartphone shipments represents yet another front in its weakening trade position. Beyond handsets, Chinese exports across categories including batteries, consumer electronics, and solar components have come under tariff pressure, with firms facing increasing difficulty navigating export restrictions and market uncertainty.

Still, Canalys noted that Apple and other firms remain partially reliant on China for components, sub-assemblies, and final-stage manufacturing, underscoring the complexity of a full-scale decoupling.

“Apple’s dependence on China isn’t over,” Chaurasia said. “But it is clear the center of gravity in consumer electronics production is beginning to shift.”