A Japanese diplomat rushed to Beijing on Tuesday amid bilateral political tensions fueled by provocative remarks by the Japense prime minister, and left China's capital on the same day, with a grim face and without saying a word to the media.
Kanai Masaaki, director-general of the Japanese Foreign Ministry Bureau for Asian and Oceanian Affairs, met with Liu Jinsong, director-general of the Department of Asian Affairs at China’s Foreign Ministry. China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed the meeting. Mao Ning, spokesperson for China's foreign ministry, emphasized that Beijing had “urged Japan to withdraw its wrongful remarks and stop creating trouble on China-related issues.” Though unspecified, the comments were widely seen as references to extremely controversial Japanese statements on Taiwan, historical disputes, and regional security.
The meeting underscores the fragile yet resilient nature of China-Japan relations—an intricate balance of politics, history, economics, and culture that carries significant implications for regional stability in East Asia.
Historical Shadows and Political Tensions
The legacy of wars such as the First Sino-Japanese War (1894–1895) and the War of Japanese Aggression (1937–1945) continues to weigh heavily on Sino-Japanese relations. While normalization of diplomatic ties in 1972 marked a pivotal turning point, historical grievances have periodically resurfaced, complicating political engagement.
Recent years have seen right-wing Japanese politicians, notably Sanae Takaichi, ignite tensions with statements implying Japan could intervene militarily in Taiwan. Takaichi, the first female Prime Minister in post-war Japan, publicly asserted that “an incident in Taiwan is an incident for Japan,” challenging the One China Principle and post-war international norms.
Beijing responded with strong statements from its Foreign Ministry, Ministry of National Defense, and Taiwan Affairs Office, warning that any force attempting to obstruct China’s reunification would fail and that military intervention in the Taiwan Strait would be met with decisive action.
These diplomatic provocations have not only intensified bilateral friction but also drawn attention from the international community, highlighting the importance of stability in the Taiwan Strait and the broader Asia-Pacific region.
Economic Interdependence: Trade, Investment, and Supply Chains
Beneath political turbulence lies a deep economic relationship that has proven resilient over decades. China and Japan, the world’s second- and third-largest economies, maintain extensive trade, investment, and industrial ties that form the backbone of bilateral relations.
Trade
Bilateral merchandise trade reached 3.17 trillion yuan (≈$440 billion) in 2023, with over $1.2 billion in goods crossing the East China Sea daily. Japanese exports to China in 2024 totaled $113.89 billion, up 4.3% from the previous year, while imports from China were $156.61 billion, narrowing Japan’s trade deficit to $42.71 billion.
The trade structure is highly complementary: China exports labor- and resource-intensive products, while Japan supplies high-value, technology-intensive goods such as semiconductors, industrial machinery, and transportation equipment. Japanese semiconductor exports alone accounted for ¥820 billion in 2022, nearly double their exports to the United States.
Service trade is also growing rapidly, spanning transportation, tourism, business, healthcare, and emerging sectors like green energy. Japan excels in high-value services such as finance and consulting, while China provides tourism, construction, and digital services. These complementarities create significant opportunities for bilateral collaboration.
Investment
Japanese direct investment in China dates to the 1980s and now includes over 56,000 companies employing more than one million Chinese workers. Chinese investment in Japan, initially modest, has expanded to manufacturing, finance, retail, and acquisitions, including high-profile cases like Midea Group’s acquisition of Toshiba’s home appliance business.
In 2023, China’s outward direct investment to Japan reached $25.288 billion, surpassing Japanese investment in China at $13.098 billion, signaling a new phase of balanced, two-way investment. This reflects both China’s growing economic strength and the mutual benefits of deepening collaboration.
Supply Chains
Industrial and supply chain integration is another pillar of interdependence. Japan leads in upstream components and precision equipment, while China handles mid- and downstream manufacturing and assembly. For example, high-end smartphones combine Japanese sensors and displays with Chinese assembly, creating a finely woven production network that is difficult to decouple without serious disruption.
Both nations depend on each other for key materials, from semiconductors to automotive parts. Past crises, such as natural disasters or global health emergencies, have shown that disruptions on one side have immediate ripple effects on the other, underscoring the shared interest in stability.
Cultural Ties, Tourism, and the Human Dimension
Beyond economics, cultural and people-to-people exchanges form a critical stabilizing force in Sino-Japanese relations. Over 260 pairs of sister cities link the two countries—the most China has with any foreign nation—fostering local cooperation and mutual understanding.
Chinese tourism to Japan has surged dramatically. In 2024, 6.98 million Chinese tourists visited Japan, spending 1.73 trillion yen ($80 billion), accounting for 21.3% of total foreign tourist expenditures in Japan—equivalent to 21% of Japan’s annual defense budget. Japanese pop culture, anime, and digital content have also become deeply popular in China, creating cultural affinity that extends beyond economics.
However, tourism is sensitive to political developments. Following controversial statements by Japanese politicians regarding Taiwan, Chinese airlines implemented flexible ticketing policies, leading some travelers to shift destinations from Japan to Southeast Asia. From mid-October 2025, flights between China and Japan dropped for four consecutive weeks, reflecting a cooling of the market due to diplomatic concerns.
These cultural and interpersonal exchanges provide a human dimension to the bilateral relationship, fostering trust, mutual understanding, and shared economic benefit. They remind both nations that their fates are deeply intertwined not only through trade and investment, but also through people-to-people connections.
Navigating the Future
When we look beyond the “turbulent waves” stirred by a few opportunistic politicians and examine the “deep economic currents” woven together by trade, investment, supply chains, and cultural ties, it becomes clear that the colossal vessel of China–Japan relations is tightly bound by steel cables forged over more than forty years of reform, opening-up, and globalization. Forcibly severing these ties risks capsizing the ship and throwing the economic waters of the Asia-Pacific—and even the world—into turmoil.
History’s lessons cannot be forgotten; they constantly remind us of the paths to follow and the hidden reefs to avoid. Yet if we let political manipulation from Japan blind us, causing us to ignore or even deny the deeply embedded economic realities and shared interests of today, that would be another form of misdirection.
The complexity of China–Japan relations lies in the dual responsibility both nations bear: to honor the memories of history while shouldering the obligations of the future.
