NextFin news, In 2025, Japan has intensified its military and strategic posture toward the East China Sea amid China’s assertive regional military activities, particularly around Taiwan. The Japanese Ministry of Defense announced plans for annual joint exercises involving anti-ship and missile defense drills near key geographic points such as Hokkaido, Kyushu, and the Southwestern Islands, including Okinawa. These moves coincide with heightened activity by Chinese and Russian military vessels near these areas and follow Japan’s recent deployment of additional missiles and rare amphibious defense exercises in proximity to Taiwan.
In the diplomatic arena, Japan has engaged with Taiwan officials during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, despite protests from Beijing warning against any official recognition of the island. Japan's Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has pledged a doubling of Japan's defense spending, signaling a clear strategic shift in response to the China threat. Notably, this thrust under Japan’s policy framework happens under the current US administration led by President Donald Trump, inaugurated in January 2025, emphasizing a robust Indo-Pacific security approach.
Japan’s initiatives are part of a broader anti-China strategy aimed at countering Beijing’s influence and military expansionism. The approach leverages Taiwan’s strategic position within the First Island Chain—a vital geographic barrier constraining Chinese naval and air power projection. Japan’s joint military exercises facilitate interoperability not only within its Self Defense Forces but also with key allies, including the United States, which maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity but increasing support for Taiwan’s defense capabilities, reflecting in arms sales and secret military training.
This policy creates friction across the Taiwan Strait, with China viewing Taiwan as an inseparable part of its sovereign territory under its One China principle. Beijing’s intensified military incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone and naval proximity near Japan’s southwestern islands underscore its growing reluctance to tolerate external interference. The Chinese government’s designation of Taiwan Liberation Day as a statutory holiday reinforces the ideological and symbolic importance of Taiwan's reunification with the mainland.
From a geopolitical perspective, Taiwan's role as a semiconductor production hub—dominating 65% of global supply and 90% of advanced chip manufacturing through TSMC—adds a critical economic dimension. Any conflict fueled by external strategic maneuvers, such as Japan’s anti-China posture involving Taiwan, risks precipitating a severe global supply chain crisis with ripple effects on technology industries worldwide, threatening estimated economic disruptions upwards of $1 trillion.
Against this backdrop, Taiwan risks becoming a strategic pawn in Japan’s broader contest with China. While Japan's security concerns are legitimate given China's military buildup, Taiwan’s involvement in this dynamic introduces complex sovereignty issues. Taiwan increasingly adopts an asymmetric defense strategy emphasized in its 2025 National Defense Report, balancing conventional capabilities with mobile, low-cost systems to mitigate vulnerabilities exposed in scenarios like a Chinese blockade.
Politically, Taiwan faces internal divisions, with the Kuomintang party under recently elected Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun advocating for a shared Chinese identity, while the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) emphasizes Taiwan’s de facto independence. Japan’s engagement with Taiwan complicates this delicate political landscape, potentially undermining cross-strait stability and escalating diplomatic confrontations.
Economically, both Taiwan and Japan must consider the implications of any escalation for their critical industries. Taiwan’s semiconductor sector faces export control pressures from China and external requests for reshoring chip production, which Taiwan has resisted, complicating its economic ties. Japan’s defense spending increase and military exercises embody its strategic hedge against Chinese regional dominance but could trigger retaliatory measures from China, including economic and military provocations.
Looking forward, these developments suggest several trends: Japan’s defense modernization and proactive security posture will likely deepen, including closer military coordination with Taiwan and the US, aggravating Beijing’s threat perception. Taiwan’s strategic autonomy and resilience will be tested as it navigates alliance dependencies and asymmetric defense imperatives. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s policy orientation toward Taiwan will critically influence the US-Japan-Taiwan trilateral security framework, with the potential to stabilize or destabilize cross-strait relations depending on diplomatic calibrations.
In sum, Japan’s incorporation of Taiwan into its anti-China strategy risks exacerbating cross-strait tensions and regional instability. This risk arises from the interplay of geopolitical security concerns, Taiwan’s economic centrality, and the evolving international power dynamics under President Donald Trump’s US leadership. Future diplomatic efforts must carefully balance deterrence with dialogue to prevent Taiwan from becoming an inadvertent pawn in wider great-power competition that threatens peace in the Asia-Pacific.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker and corroborated by reporting from Reuters and the Taipei Times, this evolving scenario demands close monitoring as it shapes the Indo-Pacific security architecture in 2025 and beyond.
