NextFin news, on November 7, 2025, Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank, Germany's chief operational military commander, publicly warned in Berlin at the Bundeswehr's annual conference about a looming Russian military threat to NATO. Sollfrank stated that, despite Russia's integration of significant combat resources in Ukraine, Moscow retains the immediate capacity to launch a limited, rapid, and geographically regional attack on NATO territory—potentially as soon as the near future. This revelation came amid concerns over Russia’s ongoing military rearmament and strategic recalibration. Parallel to Sollfrank’s statements, Germany’s defense chief Carsten Breuer emphasized that Russia should never assume it can prevail in a war against NATO or its member states, underscoring the importance of learning from the Ukrainian conflict and adapting NATO’s operational concepts accordingly.
According to Sollfrank, Russia’s current military limitations are tied to its extensive deployment and attrition in Ukraine, preventing large-scale operations elsewhere. However, Moscow is steadily rebuilding its land forces through artillery enhancement, drone proliferation, and plans to increase active troop strength up to 1.5 million soldiers. Artillery and missile inventories are projected to double by 2030 compared to 2022 levels, potentially restoring Moscow’s strategic offensive capabilities. Furthermore, Russia’s air defense systems and nuclear missile forces remain largely intact, preserving a significant deterrent and offensive leverage. The German general also flagged an escalating trend of hybrid warfare tactics by Russia, including drone incursions and cyber-sabotage, designed to test NATO’s resilience and cohesion without full-scale war.
This sobering strategic appraisal is anchored on three critical factors: Russia's militarized capacity, its operational combat experience gained from prolonged engagement in Ukraine, and the decision-making calculated by Kremlin leadership. Sollfrank and other German military authorities agree that while the capability for a small-scale strike exists today, a full-scale offensive against NATO territories might only become feasible around 2029 if Moscow’s rearmament trajectory continues unhindered. This timeline reflects the interplay of depleted war reserves, ongoing conflict strain, and the ambitious military modernization plans being pursued.
The implications for NATO and European defense posture are profound. The warning comes at a time when the U.S. military has announced partial troop redeployments in Europe, stirring concerns about alliance force readiness and strategic burden sharing. Germany, as Europe's military linchpin, has unveiled "Operation Plan Germany," which sets out how it would facilitate rapid mobilization of up to 800,000 allied troops within 180 days to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank in a crisis. The plan emphasizes deterrence through readiness and alliance cohesion, reinforcing the message that credible deterrence requires demonstrable operational capabilities supported by political commitment.
From a broader geopolitical and strategic perspective, the German military’s alert represents a critical recalibration within NATO’s threat assessment framework. The ongoing war in Ukraine has drained significant Russian conventional resources, but Moscow’s sustained investments in weapons systems and personnel indicate a long-term strategy to restore and possibly expand its power projection capabilities. Analysts highlight that hybrid warfare tactics serve dual functions: to destabilize and intimidate NATO members while probing their defense responsiveness, which may lower thresholds for conventional military escalation or miscalculation.
Economically and industrially, Germany’s call for accelerated defense investments aligns with an EU-wide trend toward rebuilding deterrence capabilities after years of underfunding. The growing scale of Russian rearmament pressures European defense budgets and industrial bases to accelerate modernization and the integration of emerging technologies such as advanced drone systems, missile defenses, and cyber-secure command infrastructures. The challenge remains balancing immediate operational needs with sustainable long-term defense industrial resilience.
Looking forward, NATO’s strategic outlook must factor in Russia’s potential to execute what German officials describe as a “small, quick, regionally limited” strike. Such an attack, though conventionally constrained, could have cascading effects on alliance security, prompting rapid escalation risks, political crises, and economic disruptions across Europe. Moreover, the prospect of a larger-scale offensive by 2029 compels NATO to sustain and deepen multinational interoperability, early warning systems, and integrated deterrence mechanisms, including nuclear strategic deterrence and missile defense architectures.
In summary, Germany’s senior military leadership has delivered a critical early warning grounded in a realistic appraisal of Russia’s military evolution. This warning signifies not just an immediate tactical concern but also a strategic imperative for NATO and its member states to invest decisively in deterrence, rapid response capability, and alliance unity under the presidency of Donald Trump’s administration, which continues to prioritize NATO burden-sharing and NATO’s role in countering Russian aggression. Failure to heed such forecasts risks strategic surprise and undermines the fragile peace architecture safeguarding Europe.
