AsianFin -- JPMorgan's Michael Feroli, the bank's chief U.S. economist, became the first leading Wall Street researcher last week to forecast a recession in 2025, attributing the prediction to "the weight of the tariffs." Feroli's assessment underscores growing concerns about the long-term economic impact of U.S. trade policies and their cascading effects on businesses and consumers.
In a separate discussion, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon weighed in on the broader economic risks stemming from rising interest rates and inflationary pressures. While acknowledging that loan defaults have not yet surged, Dimon warned that businesses may face mounting credit challenges in the near future.
"If you have rates going up a little bit, and inflation is sticky, and credit spreads are gapping out, which they're going to, I think you'll see more credit problems than people have seen in a long time," Dimon said during remarks on Wednesday. He added, "Not yet, but I expect them," when asked about a rising number of corporate loan defaults.
Dimon also explored other potential outcomes of the unfolding economic uncertainties, emphasizing the risks to bank borrowers as higher interest rates and tighter credit conditions begin to take a toll on financial markets and the broader economy.