AsianFin -- China’s vehicle exports are projected to rise by 5.8% to 6.2 million units in 2025, marking a significant slowdown compared to the 19.3% growth recorded in 2024, according to data released Monday by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).

The anticipated export deceleration contrasts with a modest boost in domestic vehicle sales, which are expected to grow 4.7% to 32.9 million units this year, up from a 4.5% increase in 2024. Extended policy incentives are likely to support the continued expansion of the world’s largest automotive market.

While CAAM did not provide a breakdown of export estimates by engine type, it highlighted notable shifts in export trends. Exports of electric vehicles (EVs) declined 10.4% in 2024, while plug-in hybrid exports surged 190%. This represents a sharp reversal from 2023, when EV exports rose 80.9% and plug-in hybrids increased by 47.8%. The shift reflects the impact of additional tariffs on Chinese-made EVs introduced by the European Union in late October.

In response to these tariffs, China has advised its automakers to suspend major investments in European countries that support the new levies, as reported by Reuters. Chinese automakers are increasingly pivoting toward plug-in hybrid exports to Europe as a strategy to counter the restrictions on EVs.

The association also forecasted a slowdown in new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, which include EVs and plug-in hybrids. NEV sales are expected to grow by 24.4% in 2025, down from the 35.5% expansion recorded last year.