AsianFin – Torsten Slok, Chief Economist and Partner at Apollo Global Management, outlined 12 potential risks that could impact the global market in 2025, along with their likelihood. Slok predicts that there is a 90% chance of the US imposing higher tariffs and Nvidia's earnings falling short of expectations. Meanwhile, the probability of the US economy slipping into recession is deemed to be zero, and the likelihood of a serious budget crisis is considered to be a low 10%.

Slok also forecasts a 40% chance of the 10-year US Treasury yield rising above 5% by mid-2025, a scenario which could be negative for the economy, as mortgage, credit card, and other consumer rates typically follow the 10-year yield. Additionally, Slok predicts a 40% chance of accelerating inflation in the first quarter of 2024, which could lead the Federal Reserve to shift its stance toward raising interest rates rather than cutting them.