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AsianFin -- The solid-state battery concept has sparked a frenzy in the capital market, with stock prices of related Chinese companies surging. However, industry experts warn that the technology is still largely in the experimental phase, raising concerns over whether this boom signals a true technological breakthrough or simply another capital-driven hype.
On Wednesday, Guansheng Shares' stock price hit the daily limit up. The company is currently constructing a production line for semi-solid-state lithium iron phosphate batteries, with a planned capacity of 2GWh. Yifei Laser saw its stock rise by over 10%, as its battery cell assembly line is compatible with the production of semi-solid-state and solid-state batteries.
Related stocks such as Great Wall Motors and Leadpower Technology also gained more than 5%.
Seasoned experts in the field have expressed skepticism, noting that many so-called breakthroughs are more about marketing than actual progress. One insider bluntly pointed out, "Most of the solid-state batteries currently on the market are just conceptual hype. True mass production of fully solid-state batteries is still a distant dream."
Despite the optimism in the market, the reality is that technological advancements and industrial maturity lag far behind the soaring expectations. The gap between hype and reality has cast a shadow over the sustainability of this investment frenzy.
The rapid growth of the electric vehicle (EV) industry has fueled an insatiable demand for advanced battery technologies. Solid-state batteries, often hailed as the "holy grail" of battery technology, promise higher energy density, improved safety, and faster charging speed compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries. This potential has made them a magnet for capital investment.
Leading Chinese battery manufacturers like CATL and BYD have announced timelines for solid-state battery production. CATL aims for small-scale production by 2027, while BYD plans to achieve cost parity with liquid batteries and begin large-scale commercialization by 2030. These announcements have bolstered market confidence, further buoyed by supportive government policies.
However, the market's exuberance has led to overvaluation and speculative trading. Some companies, like Shanghai Xiba, have issued risk warnings, acknowledging that they are still in the early stages of production and have yet to secure bulk orders or stable revenue streams.
Industry insiders have cautioned that currently, with the intense hype about solid-state batteries in the market, there are not a few cases of "creating batteries on PPT."
Some automakers have been vigorously promoting solid-state batteries, but regarding the actual mass production progress, we still need to pay attention to the official developments of leading battery manufacturers such as CATL.
"Industry leaders like CATL will be more cautious when announcing their progress," the insider said. "They not only need to consider the technical feasibility but also weigh cost control and commercial implementation. They won't blindly and aggressively launch solid-state batteries."
Meanwhile, solid-state batteries face challenges in lifespan, stability under extreme conditions, and safety. CATL Chairman Robin Zeng has likened the current technological maturity level to a "four out of nine," with a target of reaching "seven to eight" by 2027.
There are three primary technological pathways for solid-state batteries: sulfide, oxide, and polymer.
Moreover, the production process for solid-state batteries is complex and costly. Current manufacturing costs are two to three times higher than those of liquid batteries, and yield rates remain low. Going from laboratory research to mass production requires significant investment in equipment and process validation, with costs potentially reaching tens of billions of yuan.
In the short term, semi-solid-state batteries are expected to dominate the market. These batteries, which contain 5%-10% liquid electrolytes, offer a compromise between performance and manufacturability. Industry leaders like Wan Gang, the Chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, have described semi-solid-state batteries as a necessary stepping stone toward fully solid-state technology.
Companies like Welion New Energy believe that semi-solid-state batteries can address current user pain points, such as range anxiety and safety concerns, while fully solid-state batteries remain a longer-term goal.
Solid-state batteries hold promise beyond the EV industry. Their high energy density and safety features make them ideal for applications in energy storage, aerospace, low-altitude flight, and robotics. In the energy storage sector, for instance, solid-state batteries could significantly reduce the risk of thermal runaway, enhancing grid stability.
For automakers, mastering solid-state battery technology is not just about improving vehicle performance but also about securing a competitive edge in the rapidly evolving automotive landscape. Traditional automakers like Mercedes-Benz, Honda, and Hyundai are investing heavily in solid-state battery research, aiming to reclaim their dominance in the high-end EV market.
The race to the solid-state battery exemplifies the dynamics of early-stage technology in capital markets: a blend of disruptive potential and speculative excess. While the technology holds immense promise, significant challenges remain in achieving mass production .
Over the next two to three years, the maturity of the technology and the pace of commercialization will determine the true winners in this space. Companies with genuine technological and production advantages are likely to emerge as leaders.
As the industry navigates this complex landscape, one thing is clear: solid-state batteries are not just a technological race but a battle for the future of mobility.
