A new report from Bernstein Research predicts that Nvidia’s share of the Chinese AI‑chip market will drop sharply to just 8% by 2026, as Chinese competitors like Huawei gain ground. 

According to the forecast, Huawei is expected to dominate with roughly 50% of the market by 2026. The emerging pattern also suggests that other players such as AMD (projected at around 12%) and Cambricon could rank as the second and third largest vendors in the Chinese AI‑chip landscape. 

According to Bernstein, Nvidia’s market share in China’s AI‑chip market is estimated to be about 54% in 2025, down from about 66% in 2024. 

This reflects a steep downward trend as U.S. regulatory constraints and competition reshape the market.